Continued Worries About Oil Prices and Supply

The Week Ahead: Week of 13 Nov (GMT+2)

Tuesday, 14 Nov, 15:30 – US CPI (MoM) (Oct)

The recent consumer price index, which serves as a significant indicator of inflation, rose by 0.4%. Several Federal Reserve officials have expressed the view that these increases might eliminate the necessity for additional policy tightening. As a result, markets are currently assigning only a low probability to the central bank voting in favour of a rate hike before the year’s end.

Wednesday, 15 Nov, 01:50 – JP GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

Japan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the previous month fell by 1.2%, which was below market expectations. This disappointing figure is likely due to sluggish consumption and exports. Governor Kazuo Ueda has emphasised the importance of maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy until the economy demonstrates sufficient strength to generate substantial wage growth.

Wednesday, 15 Nov, 09:00 – UK CPI (YoY) (Oct)

In September, inflation in the United Kingdom stood at 6.7%, which was slightly higher than anticipated. The most significant factor causing this is the rising fuel prices. Economists believe that the UK’s gradual approach to returning to the Bank of England’s 2% inflation target is unlikely to see a rapid acceleration in the near future.

Wednesday, 15 Nov, 15:30 – US PPI (MoM) (Oct)

The final demand producer price index rose by 0.5% last month, a decrease from the previous month’s 0.7%, primarily due to higher costs for energy products and food. This report indicates that persistent inflation may continue, and it could lead to higher interest rates. The financial markets are closely watching this report for any hints of possible interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve.

Wednesday, 15 Nov, 17:30 – US Crude Oil Inventories

Tuesday, oil prices experienced a decline of over 4%, reaching their lowest point since late July. This drop can be attributed to a combination of factors such as mixed Chinese economic data, increased OPEC exports, and the strengthening of the dollar. Currently, traders will remain vigilant for any indications of a larger conflict emerging in the region that could potentially disrupt oil supplies.